How Long Until Affirmation Happens in the LDS Church?

I think there is a need for more turnover in current church leadership before this happens. I don't see a world where this happens while Oaks maintains any degree of access to stop it.

Something you might not know is that many issues like this have to be unanimously agreed upon by everyone in the Quorum of the Twelve and the First Presidency. Whenever that's not the case, those issues get tabled, sometimes for many years. And in General Conference, the talks they give are a reflection of their disagreements in those meetings. They throw shade at each other over social issues and doctrinal differences all the time. That's why you can have messages that seem to contradict each other sometimes in the same sessions, especially in their subtext. You're not imagining things. It's there. Those efforts to achieve unanimity are real and happen right in front of us. We just don't recognize that's what's happening.

One of the obstacles no one thinks about with the Church finally making the choice to be queer affirming, which I do believe is the right choice, is what the consequences will be across the global church. There are countries where the Church has a presence where homosexuality and gay marriage are illegal. They would lose their official recognition as a church in those countries. Official church functions would cease and those members would be left to their own devices, similar to what happened to the church's presence in countries that became Communist throughout the 20th century. I was just reading about Czechoslovakia as an example of this. When the Communist Party came into power there, the Church was banned and its members there had to conceal their membership and participation. For decades, members had to meet in secret. The Church wasn't re-established there until Communist Party rule ended in the early 90s.

I don't say that as a reason that the Church shouldn't do what is right. We have a long history of maintaining who we are in the face of rejection from governments around the world. That's one of the formative experiences of our Church as an institution. I do think it's still important to talk about and address these realities more directly than we do. Because more than a doctrinal resistance to change, I think what we're facing is a practical one. How do we move forward with full queer affirmation in countries where that position is illegal?

What we learn from history, from both polygamy and the Civil Rights movement, is action comes when the price of maintaining the status quo becomes greater than just making the change. That was the reality in 1890 and 1978, respectively. When countries start making the Church's continued presence impossible without affirmation, that's when the change will come, because then they're unable to continue tabling the decision.

Are we there next year? In five years? In ten? I don't know. I just know that this is the pattern and the precedent. And the best thing we can do, as believers in that change, is to hold the line. Continue advocating for that change until it happens, for as long as it takes. It helps to remember we're somewhere in the middle of that process, not at the beginning. We have made progress. That's real, it matters, and it does count for something. We just have to stay the course and remain firm and fixed in our position.

That may not feel like enough because we have the vision of what is truly possible. But we're not alone in the struggle. Religious communities beyond our own, who are going through this change, have a lot to teach us. Creating interfaith solidarity with them and learning from them is an untapped source of community and support for queer LDS members and allies.

It's too hard to do this alone. So don't go at it alone. Connect with those who love you, who support you, and who share in the vision you have for what this community can be. That's the way forward. And for what it's worth, I believe in you. I believe in us. And I believe with all my heart what God can do with us when we maintain our faith in the face of opposition and rejection.

So take care of yourselves. Eat, hydrate, take your meds, and stick together. We have a long road ahead of us.